VIET NAM HIV/AIDS ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, 2007-2010

1. By 2007, there were 220,000 people living with HIV and AIDS in Viet Nam. By 2010, there will be 254,000 people living with HIV and AIDS, and this number will reach 280,000 by 2012.

2. The national HIV prevalence (including adults and children) will be 0.29% in 2010 and will rise to 0.3% by 2012. Adult HIV prevalence (age 15 - 49) is estimated at 0.44% in 2010 and 0.47% in 2012. HIV prevalence will reach 0.66% in male adults 0.27% in female adults in 2012.

3. HIV incidence among adults (age 15 - 49) peaked in 2000 at 67 new infections per 100,000 people. After this peak, incidence rates steadily decline to 39 per 100,000 people in 2007, giving evidence to the success of prevention efforts.

4. There will be approximately 65,500 people living with HIV (15 years and older) in need of ARV treatment in 2010.

5. Care and treatment programs in Viet Nam have had positive impact. If expanded to reach 75% of those in need, appropriate care and treatment services which include ARV therapy will reduce the number of annual deaths by 10,600 by 2012.

6. However, because HIV/AIDS treatment prolongs life, a rise in the number of people living with HIV is expected. Human and financial resource needs for ARV in the next 5 years will be much greater.

7. The male/female HIV infection ratio will gradually decrease, reaching 2.5 by 2012. This suggests more HIV spread from infected IDUs and clients to their spouses or regular sex partners. Men will continue to account for the majority of PLHIV and new HIV infections.

8. There will be 4,800 HIV positive pregnant women in 2012, of which 4,200 will need PMTCT services.

9. Among high risk populations, IDUs have the highest HIV rates. Overall prevalence among this group stabilizes, but will remain at a high 30% in the coming years. In a number of provinces, cities, and regions, HIV prevalence rates among IDUs will increase.

10. Approximately 9% of female sex workers (FSWs) will be living with HIV in 2007 and 9.3% in 2012. The HIV epidemic among FSWs will stabilize, although there will be an increase in HIV infection among FSWs in certain provinces and cities, especially where FSWs inject drugs. Injecting drug practice among FSWs remains a key factor for HIV infection in provinces and cities with high HIV prevalence among FSWs.

11. Approximately 2% of MSM will be living with HIV from 2007 to 2017. Despite the low prevalence, the large number of men in this group will significantly affect the HIV trend in Viet Nam. It should also be noted that this is based on much more limited data than trends in the other groups, so there may be a rapid upward HIV trend among MSM in certain regions of Viet Nam.

12. Although the HIV epidemic among high risk populations across the country has begun to stabilize, the number of new infections caused by transmission from high risk men to their spouses or regular sex partners will steadily rise.

13. In the Northwestern region, in spite of insufficient data, the HIV epidemic, rising from the IDU HIV epidemic, is projected to increase rapidly in all groups.

14. There are multiple explanations for the differences in the results from the 2003 and 2007 HIV/AIDS estimates and projections processes, including the effect of widely implemented intervention programs, difference in size estimates, more complete and comprehensive data available in 2007, and improvements made to the modeling software packages.

Source: Ministry of Health, VIET NAM HIV/AIDS ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS, 2007-2012.